上半年规上工业企业利润下降1.8%，“反内卷”反什么？

Core Insights - The article highlights the ongoing low-price competition among industries such as steel, cement, and photovoltaics due to insufficient demand, leading to a situation where "increment does not equal profit" [2][4] - Industrial profits in China have shown a decline, with the total profit of industrial enterprises above designated size reaching 34,365 billion yuan in the first half of the year, a year-on-year decrease of 1.8% [1][3] - The need for "anti-involution" measures is emphasized to correct the current market dynamics and improve profitability [2][6] Industrial Profit Trends - In the first half of the year, the mining industry experienced the largest profit decline, with total profits of 4,294.1 billion yuan, down 30.3% year-on-year [3] - The electricity, heat, gas, and water production and supply industry saw profits of 4,170.4 billion yuan, growing by 3.3%, but this was a decrease from 3.7% in the previous period [3] - The manufacturing sector's profits totaled 25,900.6 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 4.5%, down from 5.4% [3][4] Price Dynamics - The Producer Price Index (PPI) in June decreased by 3.6% year-on-year and 0.4% month-on-month, significantly impacting industrial profit growth [1][3] - The revenue profit margin for industrial enterprises was 5.15% in the first half of the year, which is 0.22 percentage points lower than the same period last year [1] Sector-Specific Performance - The raw materials manufacturing sector's profit growth slowed to 6.8%, a decline of 4.3 percentage points from the previous period [4] - Downstream consumer goods manufacturing, including furniture and textiles, showed negative profit growth, with beverage manufacturing profits down 2.1% [4] - The equipment manufacturing sector experienced rapid revenue and profit growth, with profits increasing by 96.8% in the automotive industry due to promotional activities and investment returns [5][6] Policy Implications - The "anti-involution" policies are expected to help stabilize industrial profits, with a focus on controlling new investments and improving cash flow through shorter accounts receivable periods [6][7] - The government plans to implement measures to support consumption and stabilize employment, which may further enhance demand and improve industrial profitability [9] Future Outlook - Experts predict that industrial profits may gradually recover in the third quarter due to ongoing policy support and improved market conditions [8][9] - The emphasis on equipment updates and consumer goods replacement policies is expected to continue, contributing to a positive trend in industrial profits [9]