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Why Marriott Vacations Worldwide (VAC) is Poised to Beat Earnings Estimates Again

Core Insights - Marriott Vacations Worldwide (VAC) is positioned to continue its earnings-beat streak, having surpassed earnings estimates by an average of 14.79% in the last two quarters [1][5]. Earnings Performance - For the most recent quarter, Marriott Vacations Worldwide reported earnings of $1.56 per share, missing the expected $1.66 per share by 6.41%. In the previous quarter, the company exceeded the consensus estimate of $1.51 per share by reporting $1.86 per share, resulting in a surprise of 23.18% [2]. Earnings Estimates and Predictions - Estimates for Marriott Vacations Worldwide have been trending higher, supported by its history of earnings surprises. The stock currently has a positive Zacks Earnings ESP of +3.71%, indicating bullish sentiment among analysts regarding its near-term earnings potential [5][8]. - The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank of 3 (Hold) suggests a strong likelihood of another earnings beat, with historical data showing that stocks with this combination beat consensus estimates nearly 70% of the time [6][8]. Earnings ESP Explanation - The Zacks Earnings ESP compares the Most Accurate Estimate to the Zacks Consensus Estimate, with the Most Accurate Estimate reflecting the latest analyst revisions. This metric is crucial for predicting earnings surprises [7][9]. Importance of Earnings ESP - While many companies may beat consensus EPS estimates, the Earnings ESP metric is essential for assessing the likelihood of such outcomes. A negative Earnings ESP does not necessarily indicate an earnings miss, but it reduces predictive power [9][10].