英媒：美关税乱象或导致航运业暴跌

Core Insights - The article discusses the volatile impact of U.S. tariff policies on the shipping industry, suggesting that while these policies have temporarily benefited shipping companies, they are likely to lead to a significant downturn in the near future [1][2]. Group 1: Shipping Industry Performance - In 2022, the global container shipping industry saw profits soar to $520 billion due to increased demand during the pandemic, but profits are expected to decline in 2023 due to weakening demand [3]. - The shipping industry is projected to experience a profit rebound in 2024, reaching $78 billion, driven by increased shipping volumes and freight rates [3]. - The shipping volume to the U.S. in the first half of this year was 3.8% higher than in 2024, indicating a temporary surge in demand [3]. Group 2: Tariff Implications - U.S. tariffs have led to a temporary increase in shipping profits as companies rush to import goods before potential tariff hikes, but this has created a cycle of volatility in profit margins [3][4]. - The expectation of increased tariffs has caused shipping companies to "front-load" imports, which may result in a lackluster fall season for shipping demand [4]. - The imposition of high port fees on foreign vessels is seen as a misguided attempt to boost domestic shipbuilding, which may lead to increased shipping costs and further market instability [4]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The shipping industry is expected to face challenges in the second half of the year, with potential profits of $20 billion, but 2026 is anticipated to be a particularly difficult year [4]. - HSBC estimates that global shipping demand will grow at an average rate of only 2% from 2025 to 2027, significantly lower than the previous year's growth of 6% [4]. - The industry may soon experience a significant oversupply of capacity, leading to a sharp decline in freight rates unless the U.S. finds new ways to support global shipping [4].