全球金融市场波动加大 人民币资产吸引力上升

Group 1 - 30% of central banks surveyed plan to increase allocation to RMB assets, indicating a growing interest in diversifying investments into China [1] - The RMB has appreciated by 1.9% against the USD in the first half of the year, with a trading range between 7.15 and 7.35 [1] - Foreign investment in RMB-denominated bonds has exceeded $600 billion, reflecting a stable trend since 2025 [1] Group 2 - The RMB is experiencing structural changes, with a shift in expectations towards appreciation rather than depreciation [2] - The long-term low interest rate environment in China, with 10-year government bond yields below 2%, contrasts with the US yields above 4%, supporting RMB's internationalization [2] Group 3 - The credibility of US Treasury bonds is declining, as evidenced by increased volatility and a 5% drop in the USD index following tariff announcements [3][4] - The shift in trade dynamics due to tariffs may enhance the use of non-USD currencies, including RMB, in international trade settlements [5] Group 4 - The current low allocation of global stock assets to China (1.7%) compared to the US (54%) suggests a potential for systematic correction in the future [6] - China's manufacturing sector continues to lead globally, with a manufacturing value added of over 40.5 trillion yuan, accounting for approximately 30% of global manufacturing [7] Group 5 - The market position of the RMB is improving, with foreign investors increasingly holding RMB-denominated assets, which currently account for about 3%-4% of total market value [8] - Economic stability and the effectiveness of domestic demand policies are expected to further enhance the attractiveness of RMB assets to foreign investors [8] Group 6 - The RMB's exchange rate is expected to remain stable, supported by high-quality economic development and ongoing foreign exchange market resilience [9] - The need for the RMB to maintain appropriate elasticity in its exchange rate is emphasized to mitigate downward pressure [9] Group 7 - Recent measures to facilitate cross-border investment and financing are expected to enhance the attractiveness of RMB assets, with significant reductions in processing times for foreign investment [10] - Allowing for a moderate appreciation of the RMB could help alleviate concerns about currency depreciation among foreign investors, fostering a positive investment environment [10][11]