智通财经网·2025-07-29 00:46Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the recent tariff rates imposed by the U.S. are lower than initially feared, alleviating concerns about a severe economic recession [1][2] - The actual tariff rates are expected to stabilize between 15% and 20%, which is significantly higher than earlier low single-digit levels but lower than the previously anticipated 25% [1][2] - Economists have reduced the recession risk from 60% to 40%, indicating a less pessimistic outlook due to strong global economic growth and a more relaxed financial environment [1][2] Group 2 - Despite the reduction in recession risk, there are still concerns that tariffs could suppress economic growth significantly [2] - The final outcome of the trade negotiations remains uncertain, with critical issues needing resolution before the August 1 deadline [2] - The Federal Reserve is expected to consider the impact of tariffs on inflation in their upcoming discussions, with a potential interest rate cut in September if economic conditions weaken [3]