短纤：供需预期偏弱 短期无明显驱动

Supply and Demand - As of July 25, the restart of maintenance units has led to a recovery in short fiber load to approximately 90.6% (+1.1%) [3] - Downstream pure polyester yarn and polyester-cotton yarn maintain discussions for sales, but overall orders remain weak with inventory at high levels [3] Profitability - On July 28, the cash processing fee for short fibers is around 997 yuan/ton, while the processing fees for PF2509 and PF2510 contracts are 895 yuan/ton and 942 yuan/ton respectively [2] Market Outlook - Currently, the supply and demand for short fibers is marginally weakening, with prices having rebounded last week due to domestic macro sentiment, but downstream purchasing capacity remains weak [4] - The increase in short fiber prices is less than that of raw materials, leading to a significant compression in processing fees [4] - Short-term expectations for short fibers remain weak, with absolute prices fluctuating alongside raw materials; processing fees for PF contracts are expected to oscillate between 800-1100 with limited upward and downward drivers [4] Spot Market - On July 28, the direct-spun polyester short-term futures followed the weak trend of raw materials, with factory quotes maintained and transactions stabilizing, although sales have weakened [1] - Prices from traders have decreased, leading to increased downstream purchases and a noticeable increase in transaction volume [1] - Some basis prices have strengthened, with New Fengming (603225) and Sanfangxiang (600370) quoted at 09+150~160 yuan/ton, and Yida and Huaxi Village at 09+100 yuan/ton [1]