美欧关税协议助力美元飙升 黄金四连跌 重要关口危在旦夕

Core Viewpoint - The recent trade agreement between the US and EU has positively impacted market sentiment, leading to a stronger dollar and a decline in gold prices, with gold reaching a near three-week low [1][2][3]. Group 1: Trade Agreements and Market Impact - The US and EU reached a significant trade agreement on July 27, setting import tariffs on EU goods at 15%, alleviating fears of a larger trade war [1]. - This agreement has reduced concerns about a global economic recession and increased the attractiveness of risk assets, boosting stock markets and the dollar [1]. - The S&P 500 index reached a new closing high for six consecutive trading days, while the Nasdaq index also set a record, indicating heightened investor enthusiasm for risk assets [1]. Group 2: Currency and Gold Price Dynamics - The dollar index (DXY) surged nearly 1% to 98.64, marking its largest single-day increase since May 12, which negatively affects gold prices as a stronger dollar makes gold more expensive for foreign buyers [2][3]. - Historical trends show a negative correlation between the dollar and gold prices, with a strong dollar increasing the holding costs of gold and diminishing its appeal as a safe-haven asset [3]. Group 3: Ongoing Trade Negotiations - Despite the positive sentiment from the US-EU agreement, uncertainties remain in US-China trade negotiations, which continue to provide some support for gold prices [5]. - US and Chinese officials resumed talks in Stockholm on July 28, aiming to extend the trade truce by 90 days, but no significant breakthroughs are expected [5]. - The Trump administration's high-pressure stance on trade issues and recent agreements with other countries highlight the US's dominant position in global trade, contributing to cautious market sentiment regarding the US-China negotiations [5]. Group 4: Technical Analysis of Gold Trading - Analysts indicate that gold prices have fallen below the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) of $3,335 per ounce, marking the fourth consecutive day of decline [6]. - If gold prices drop below $3,300 per ounce, the next support level is around $3,244 per ounce, with further targets at $3,200 and $3,120 per ounce [6]. - Conversely, if gold recovers above $3,350 per ounce, it could pave the way towards $3,400 and potentially reach historical highs of $3,500 per ounce [6].