机构看金市：7月29日

Core Viewpoint - The precious metals market is currently lacking a driving force for a trend, with various factors contributing to market uncertainty and mixed sentiments among investors [1][3][4]. Group 1: Market Sentiment and Economic Indicators - The market's risk aversion is weakening, and the rapid rebound of the US dollar index has led to gold prices experiencing a third failed rebound since April, indicating a divide between bullish and bearish sentiments [1][2]. - Recent US economic data shows resilience, with initial jobless claims continuing to decline, the services PMI reaching a recent high, and durable goods orders exceeding expectations, reducing the urgency for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates [1][3]. - The ongoing trade agreements between the US and countries like Japan, Indonesia, and the Philippines, as well as a framework with the EU and new negotiations with China, have further decreased market uncertainty, negatively impacting precious metals [1][3]. Group 2: Gold and Silver Market Dynamics - The gold market is expected to maintain a sideways trend as the market awaits the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting, with limited pricing for a potential rate cut [3][4]. - Despite the strengthening of the US dollar, gold prices have shown some resilience, with a decline of only about 0.74% even as the dollar appreciated over 1%, indicating strategic buyers are still willing to accumulate gold positions [3][4]. - Silver is benefiting from the stagnation in gold prices and the expectation of a return to a favorable gold-silver ratio, suggesting that a strategy of buying on dips remains advisable [1][2]. Group 3: Central Bank Actions and Future Outlook - The short-term consolidation of gold prices is expected to continue as the market has not yet identified a catalyst to restart an upward trend, although central bank purchases remain a key driver for gold price increases [4]. - The desire of central banks to reduce reliance on the US dollar as a reserve currency and mitigate risks associated with US sanctions is contributing to the ongoing dynamics in the gold market [4].