预测市场简史：从教皇选举到Polymarket

Historical Context - Prediction markets have a long history, dating back over a thousand years in various fields including politics and military outcomes [1] - The first formal prediction market legislation was introduced in 1591 by Pope Gregory XIV, prohibiting betting on the outcomes of papal conclaves [1] - In the 18th century, London coffeehouses became venues for betting on political events, with odds published in newspapers [1] Early American Prediction Markets - The first recorded American "whale" was Charles James Fox, who heavily invested in political event predictions, leading to his bankruptcy [2] - Early American betting on elections can be traced back to the 19th century, with notable figures like James Buchanan and John Van Buren participating in wagers [2] Development of Formal Prediction Markets - The first significant prediction market in the U.S. was centered around billiard halls in New York City, where betting on election outcomes became common [3] - Betting odds were often used as indicators of public sentiment before the advent of modern polling methods [3] Modern Prediction Markets - The 1960s saw the emergence of betting on elections in London, with companies like Ladbrokes leading the way [5] - Betfair became the largest peer-to-peer betting market, allowing bets on various political events [5] Regulatory Landscape - The Iowa Electronic Market was launched in 1988 as an academic experiment, operating under a non-enforcement letter from the CFTC [6] - Intrade, launched in the early 2000s, became a popular platform for political betting but faced regulatory challenges leading to its eventual closure [7][8] Recent Developments - PredictIt emerged as a successor to Intrade, gaining popularity during the 2016 and 2020 elections but faced regulatory scrutiny from the CFTC [9][10] - Kalshi and Polymarket are the current leaders in the prediction market space, with Kalshi focusing on event-based trading and Polymarket utilizing cryptocurrency [12][13] Future Outlook - The prediction market industry is expected to grow, driven by increased public interest and participation, particularly during election cycles [12][14] - Regulatory challenges remain a significant hurdle, with ongoing legal battles affecting the operations of companies like Kalshi and Polymarket [14][15] - The future of prediction markets may hinge on how these companies navigate competition and regulatory landscapes, with potential for both growth and consolidation [14][15]