Group 1 - The implementation of the national childcare subsidy policy is expected to benefit infant formula sales, with a projected increase of 520,000 newborns in 2024, leading to positive growth in first-stage formula sales [1][4] - The subsidy will provide 3,600 yuan per year for each child under three years old, covering all families regardless of the number of children, which is anticipated to gradually improve the birth rate [2][3] - The total subsidy for newborns from 2022 to 2024 is estimated at 156 billion yuan, with a projected subsidy of 10,800 yuan per person for those born after January 1, 2025 [3] Group 2 - Companies like China Feihe are expected to achieve revenues of 9.1 to 9.3 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, with low single-digit growth anticipated for the full year [4] - Yili's revenue from milk powder and dairy products is projected to reach 29.68 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 7.5%, with a market share of 17.3% in infant formula [4] - Mengniu's milk powder business is expected to generate 3.32 billion yuan in revenue for 2024, showing a year-on-year decline of 12.7%, while its subsidiary, Ruibaoen, is experiencing double-digit growth [4] Group 3 - H&H International Holdings reported a high single-digit growth in infant formula sales for the first half of 2025, with a market share increase in the ultra-premium segment from 13.0% in 2024 to 15.8% in May 2025 [5] - The dairy industry is showing a trend of differentiation, with low-temperature dairy products experiencing growth while ambient products face pressure, indicating a shift in consumer preferences [6] - The implementation of childcare policies is expected to lead to an increase in the number of infants, which may subsequently boost dairy product consumption [6]
国盛证券：育儿补贴落地 乳制品机会突出
智通财经网·2025-07-29 05:54