银河期货：关税博弈扰动市场 贵金属震荡待机

Group 1: Gold Futures Market Performance - As of July 29, the main gold futures in Shanghai reported a price of 770.70 CNY per gram, reflecting a decline of 0.33% [1] - The opening price for the day was 772.66 CNY per gram, with a maximum of 773.30 CNY and a minimum of 767.68 CNY [1] Group 2: Macro Economic News - Trump announced plans to impose tariffs on pharmaceuticals, with global tariffs expected to be around 15-20% [1] - U.S. Treasury Department forecasts a borrowing increase of 453 billion USD for Q3, raising the borrowing estimate to 1.007 trillion USD from April's prediction [3] - The probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates in July is 96.9%, while the likelihood of a 25 basis point cut is 3.1% [3] Group 3: Institutional Perspectives - The market's risk aversion is easing as the U.S. reaches agreements with Japan and the EU, while talks with China are ongoing [4] - Recent macro data from the U.S. shows resilience, reducing concerns about the deterioration of the U.S. economic fundamentals [4] - The uncertainty surrounding U.S. tariffs and policies is expected to lead to inflation rebound and economic slowdown, with precious metals likely to maintain high volatility in this uncertain environment [4]