Group 1 - The current macroeconomic situation in China is described as being in a "delicate" time window, with the economy having been in the "deflation" quadrant for over three years [1] - The PTA index, which measures industrial prices, has been negative for 34 months, with the latest reading at -3.7, indicating ongoing industrial deflation pressure [1] - The A-share market is perceived as a leading indicator, showing signs of a potential shift in policy direction and macro trends, with expectations of a turning point in the second half of the year [1] Group 2 - The "anti-involution" policy is highlighted as a key political intention, with the Central Political Bureau meeting expected to clarify details by the end of the month [2] - There is a high level of policy execution capability and market trust, suggesting that if resources are directed towards development rather than solely focusing on safety, it could alleviate deflationary pressures and introduce new structural variables to the capital market [2]
刘煜辉：中国经济正处“通缩象限”边缘 周期或迎关键转折
Xin Lang Zheng Quan·2025-07-29 07:59