豆粕市场多空因素交织 短期盘面或宽幅震荡运行

News Summary Core Viewpoint - The soybean market is experiencing fluctuations due to varying import costs, seasonal supply dynamics, and external factors such as weather conditions and trade negotiations [1][2][3]. Group 1: Soybean Inventory and Market Conditions - As of July 25, major oil mills in China have an imported soybean inventory of 7.13 million tons, which is an increase of 10,000 tons week-on-week and 580,000 tons month-on-month, but a decrease of 210,000 tons year-on-year [1] - The soybean meal inventory stands at 1.05 million tons, with a week-on-week increase of 40,000 tons and a month-on-month increase of 370,000 tons, while it has decreased by 330,000 tons year-on-year [1] - The average soybean crushing profit in Mato Grosso state for the week of July 21-25 is reported at 435.55 Brazilian Reais per ton, slightly down from 441.52 Reais per ton the previous week [1] Group 2: External Market Influences - The import cost of soybeans is currently influenced by low valuations, favorable EPA policies, and the exclusive supply of Brazilian soybeans from September to January, but the global oversupply of protein raw materials limits upward momentum [2] - The weather conditions in the U.S. soybean-producing regions have been favorable since July, with the good crop condition rating adjusted to 70%, supporting high yields [3] - Argentina's reduction of export taxes on soybeans and soybean meal may facilitate increased imports by China in the fourth quarter [3] Group 3: Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - The domestic soybean meal market is currently in a seasonal oversupply situation, with expectations that inventory may begin to decrease by the end of September [2] - The sentiment among domestic commodity traders has cooled, leading to increased soybean meal inventories and downward pressure on spot prices [3] - The market is anticipated to experience wide fluctuations in the short term, influenced by supply pressures and ongoing trade negotiations between China and the U.S. [2][3]