关税博弈白热化 贵金属波动加剧

Group 1 - Spot gold prices have dropped to a multi-week low around $3316.50 per ounce, with limited buying interest observed [1] - Silver is fluctuating cautiously near a low point of $38, reflecting a similar trend to gold [1] - The easing of safe-haven demand is attributed to the US-EU trade agreement, alongside a potential 1.5% rise in the US dollar, which is pressuring precious metal prices [1] Group 2 - Market expectations regarding interest rate changes remain cautious, with a 96.9% probability of no change in July and a 62.6% chance of a rate cut in September [2] - Structural differentiation in tariffs is noted, with countries like South Korea, Canada, and Chile seeking favorable terms, which reduces systemic risk premiums [2] - The geopolitical landscape is entering a rebalancing phase, with a ceasefire agreement between Thailand and Cambodia reducing short-term safe-haven demand, while US-Russia tensions are escalating [2] Group 3 - The strong rebound of the US dollar continues to exert pressure on gold prices, with a potential drop below $3300 leading to support levels around $3275-$3285 [3] - Silver prices are also under pressure from a strong dollar, with support levels at $37.30-$37.50 and potential further decline towards $35.65-$35.85 [3] - The precious metals market is expected to experience increased volatility, with key focus on the outcomes of the July 30 FOMC meeting and ongoing negotiations between the US and China [3]