Group 1: Residential Market Overview - The residential market in the Greater Bay Area showed signs of fatigue in Q2 due to tariff uncertainties, with market confidence expected to take time to recover, despite a potential easing of US-China trade tensions in the second half of the year [1] - The average monthly transactions for new homes are projected to be between 27,000 to 28,000, with an estimated total of around 300,000 new home sales for the year, while property prices may face a downward pressure of 0-5% [1] - The sales performance in the first half of the year was notably strong in Guangzhou and Shenzhen, indicating that quality properties in prime locations continue to attract buyers even amid market instability [1] Group 2: Commercial Property Investment Outlook - The logistics and commercial sectors are expected to perform well in the second half of the year, driven by strong demand for logistics assets due to the expansion of cross-border e-commerce [2] - The Greater Bay Area's warehousing market is anticipated to face significant new supply in the next two to three years, which may lead to increased vacancy rates and pressure on rental levels [2] - There is a growing interest in community commercial projects, particularly in second-tier cities, where owners are more pragmatic, making these projects attractive to insurance and real estate funds [2][3] Group 3: Policy and Economic Environment - The government policies in the Greater Bay Area have continued to support the stabilization of the real estate market, focusing on easing financial pressures on the supply side while maintaining demand-side support [3] - The recovery of the residential market is primarily driven by the overall economic environment rather than policy changes, with potential positive impacts from favorable economic factors such as interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [3]
戴德梁行：大湾区楼价仍存下调压力 全年或录0-5%跌幅
智通财经网·2025-07-29 08:36