年内第三次搁浅，本轮成品油价不作调整

Group 1 - The domestic fuel prices in China have remained unchanged for the third time this year, as announced by the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) [1] - As of July 28, the reference crude oil change rate was -0.57%, indicating a potential decrease of 25 yuan/ton for gasoline and diesel, which did not meet the necessary condition of a 50 yuan/ton adjustment [1][2] - The current pricing cycle has resulted in a pattern of "six increases, six decreases, and three suspensions" for fuel price adjustments in 2025 [1] Group 2 - The crude oil market lacks core driving factors, with prices fluctuating within a narrow range due to various previous developments, including OPEC+ production increases and trade negotiations [2] - As of July 29, WTI crude oil futures closed at $66.51 per barrel, while Brent crude oil futures remained unchanged at $69.09 per barrel [2] Group 3 - There is a significant probability of an increase in fuel prices in the next adjustment cycle, driven by potential supply risks from new U.S. sanctions on Russia and ongoing traditional fuel consumption in the U.S. [4] - Market sentiment is expected to improve due to positive expectations surrounding U.S.-China negotiations, which may support a stronger crude oil price in the short term [4] Group 4 - The next fuel price adjustment window is set to open at 24:00 on August 12, 2025, with an initial estimate indicating a potential increase of 55 yuan/ton based on current international oil price levels [6]