博时宏观观点：全球风险情绪保持高位，重视A股科技板块

Market Overview - The A-share market has shown a strong upward trend, with the Shanghai Composite Index reaching 3600 points for the first time this year, approaching last year's high [2] - The market is influenced by the "anti-involution" theme and investments in the Yajiang hydropower station, leading to significant gains in certain low-position industries [2] - The overall external environment is expected to remain stable as the third round of China-US negotiations approaches [2] Bond Market - The bond market experienced significant adjustments last week, driven by inflation expectations, tightening funds, and negative feedback from redemptions [1] - The central bank's large net injection of liquidity indicates a continued supportive stance on liquidity [1] - It is recommended to strategically allocate during adjustments and avoid chasing highs or selling lows [1] Sector Focus - There is a positive outlook for sectors such as technology, non-bank financials, military industry, and pharmaceuticals, while the "anti-involution" related sectors are facing high crowding and pressure [2] - The technology sector currently has low crowding and increased catalytic density, presenting potential opportunities [2] Commodity Insights - Oil demand is expected to remain weak in 2025, with continuous supply release putting downward pressure on oil prices [3] - Gold prices may benefit from economic policy uncertainties due to tariffs and doubts about the dollar's credibility, although short-term volatility is anticipated [3] Hong Kong Market - The Hong Kong stock market is seeing active inflows from southbound funds, with a sustained high risk appetite in a liquidity-rich environment [2]