Core Viewpoint - The shipment volume of negative electrode materials in China is expected to reach 1.29 million tons in the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 37%, although this growth rate is lower than that of other major materials due to inventory accumulation in anticipation of price increases in early 2024 [1] Shipment and Forecast - The shipment volume of negative electrode materials in China is projected to exceed 2.6 million tons in 2025, with a year-on-year growth of over 25% [1] - In the first half of 2025, the shipment volume of artificial graphite is expected to be 1.17 million tons, showing a year-on-year increase of 47%, accounting for 91% of the total shipment volume of negative electrode materials [2] - The shipment volume of natural graphite is anticipated to be 106,000 tons, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 23% [2] Price Trends - In the first quarter of 2025, the price of negative electrode petroleum coke increased by over 40% month-on-month, while prices began to decline in the second quarter, with minimal impact on negative electrode prices [5] - The price of natural graphite has slightly decreased due to competition from artificial graphite [5] Product Development - New generation high-capacity energy storage products are driving improvements in the capacity of artificial graphite, with battery companies testing products moving from 350 mAh/g to 353-355 mAh/g [5] - The compact density of products is evolving from 1.6 g/cm³ to 1.65 g/cm³, and the penetration rate of fast-charging products (4C) has surpassed 15% [5] - New silicon-carbon materials have been shipped in small quantities, with approximately 100 tons shipped in June, over 80% of which is applied in high-end digital fields [5] Capacity and Utilization - The negative electrode industry is experiencing structural overcapacity, similar to the lithium iron phosphate and battery industries, with the top five companies achieving over 70% capacity utilization [5] - Some small and medium-sized enterprises are struggling with order shortages, often becoming processing plants or ceasing operations [5] - The head negative electrode companies are expected to rely on small and medium-sized enterprises for processing and their own expansion, primarily in overseas or western bases, leading to a gradual increase in overall industry capacity utilization [5] Industry Outlook - The negative electrode materials industry is gradually emerging from a downturn, with expectations for a new upward cycle to begin in the second half of 2025 or the first half of 2026 [5]
GGII：2025H1中国负极材料出货量129万吨 同比增长37%
智通财经网·2025-07-29 10:26