每日机构分析：7月29日

Group 1: Trade Agreements and Market Impact - The agreement between the US and EU includes a 15% baseline tariff on European imports, while the EU will increase purchases of US energy and technology products, ending months of uncertainty and positively impacting market expectations [1] - Following the trade agreement, the euro to dollar exchange rate fell to a one-month low due to concerns over the potential negative economic impact of the tariffs [3] - The market's focus has shifted from trade tensions to the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, with expectations of a slight rate cut in September [4] Group 2: Federal Reserve and Economic Conditions - The Federal Reserve's decision to lower interest rates hinges on three conditions: signs of weakness in the job market, inflation returning to target levels, and confidence in these assessments [1] - Morgan Stanley predicts that the Federal Reserve is unlikely to cut rates this year, but acknowledges that changes in economic conditions could lead to deviations from expected policy paths [2] - Standard Chartered highlights that the real threat to the dollar comes from the Fed potentially adopting a more dovish stance, rather than the resolution of trade tensions [4] Group 3: Inflation and Economic Forecasts - BMI has revised its inflation forecast for 2025 down from 2.1% to 1.9% due to lower-than-expected inflation data in May [2] - Analysts expect that improvements in the European economy, alongside a slowdown in the US economy, will support the euro against the dollar in the medium term [3]