Core Viewpoint - The key change in asset allocation for investors in 2023 compared to 2024 is an increase in risk appetite, driven by a strong performance in equity markets and upward pressure on nominal interest rates due to rising commodity prices [1][2] Group 1: Market Dynamics - Since early April 2025, equity assets have strengthened, leading to a diversion of funds from bond funds [1] - The rise in equity markets indicates a marginal improvement in macroeconomic conditions, while collective price increases in commodities have contributed to upward pressure on nominal interest rates [1] - The rally in cyclical and energy stocks has placed significant pressure on the bond market [1] Group 2: Bond Market Outlook - The central bank maintains a relatively loose monetary market environment, suggesting that interest rate volatility risks are manageable and bond market risks are limited [1] - Three core factors driving the bond market remain unchanged: 1. Price increases in upstream industrial products will not quickly transmit to downstream sectors 2. The real estate sector is still bottoming out, and a structural asset shortage persists 3. The monetary market environment remains accommodative, which is favorable for the bond market [1] - Recent economic data shows signs of recovery, with expectations that upstream industrial prices will eventually lead to a broad price index increase, which is already reflected in the recent stock and bond markets [1] Group 3: Fixed Income Investment Strategy - For the second half of the year, long-term and ultra-long-term bonds are expected to remain core assets in the bond market, with a low probability of unilateral interest rate increases [2] - When approaching the upper limit of the interest rate range, it may be advisable to extend duration and invest in long-term bonds [2] - In the credit bond sector, the current 4-5 year high-grade credit spread is at a historically low level, suggesting a strategy of shortening duration and selectively investing in lower-rated bonds [2] - Convertible bonds in sectors such as photovoltaic, solid-state batteries, and banks are recommended, as these sectors benefit from multiple favorable factors and the valuations of these convertible bonds are closely correlated with the performance of their underlying stocks [2]
兴华基金吕智卓:利率波动风险敞口可控 债市风险有限
Zhong Zheng Wang·2025-07-29 14:06