新一轮美国关税临近 南非汽车制造业面临重压

Core Viewpoint - The South African automotive industry is facing unprecedented pressure due to the upcoming 30% tariffs imposed by the United States on all goods except certain minerals, effective August 1 [1][2]. Group 1: Impact on the Automotive Industry - The automotive sector is South Africa's largest manufacturing industry, contributing approximately 5% to the country's GDP and directly providing over 115,000 jobs, while supporting more than 500,000 jobs in the supply chain [1]. - Two-thirds of the automotive production is exported, making it one of South Africa's most internationally competitive industries [1]. - The National Association of Automobile Manufacturers of South Africa (Naamsa) reported a dramatic decline in exports to the U.S., with a year-on-year drop of 80% and 85% in April and May respectively, and only 2,875 vehicles exported in the first half of 2025, an 82% decrease from the previous year [1][2]. Group 2: Economic and Social Consequences - The CEO of Naamsa warned that the situation is not just a trade issue but a brewing socio-economic crisis, with communities reliant on the automotive industry potentially becoming ghost towns [2]. - The South African Finance Minister indicated that if a new agreement is not reached before August 1, up to 100,000 jobs could be at risk [2]. Group 3: Trade Agreements and Future Outlook - The African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA) has historically supported South African manufacturing access to the U.S. market, with automotive products accounting for 64% of South Africa's AGOA exports to the U.S. in 2024, generating R28.6 billion (approximately $1.59 billion) [2]. - The new tariffs could negate previous benefits, and the current agreement is set to expire in September, with uncertain prospects for renewal [2]. Group 4: Government Response and Industry Adaptation - In response to the challenges, the South African government is considering expanding the Automotive Production and Development Programme (APDP) and establishing a R26 billion (approximately $1.45 billion) transformation fund to support supply chain upgrades and the transition to new energy vehicles [3]. - The trend towards hybrid and electric vehicle production is becoming a core focus for automotive manufacturers [3]. - Concerns are growing that if a solution is not found by August 1, the South African manufacturing sector could face a complete collapse [3].