Norwegian Cruise to Report Q2 Earnings: Buy, Sell or Hold the Stock?

Core Insights - Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd. (NCLH) is set to release its second-quarter 2025 results on July 31, with an expected earnings per share (EPS) of 51 cents, reflecting a 27.5% increase from 40 cents in the same quarter last year [1][3] - The consensus revenue estimate for the second quarter is $2.56 billion, indicating a 7.8% growth year-over-year [3][8] Earnings Estimate Trend - The EPS estimates for the current quarter have remained stable at 51 cents over the past 30 days, with projections for the next quarters being 1.17 for Q3 2025, 2.01 for the current year, and 2.42 for next year [3][4] - The company has a history of earnings surprises, having outperformed the Zacks Consensus Estimate in three of the last four quarters, with an average surprise of 34% [4][6] Revenue Drivers - The anticipated revenue growth is attributed to firm pricing discipline, resilient onboard spending, and the full-quarter impact of the newly launched Norwegian Aqua [9][10] - Onboard revenues, including specialty dining and excursions, are expected to rise significantly, with passenger ticket revenues projected to increase by 1.5% to $1.6 billion and onboard revenues expected to grow by 17.9% to $908.7 million [10][11] Margin Considerations - Cost pressures from the launch of Norwegian Aqua and deferred costs from Q1 are expected to impact margin expansion, with adjusted net cruise costs anticipated to rise by approximately 1.4% [15][16] - Despite these pressures, the company expects adjusted EBITDA to be around $670 million for the second quarter [16] Stock Performance and Valuation - NCLH shares have increased by 49% over the past three months, outperforming the Zacks Leisure and Recreation Services industry, which rose by 31.8% [17] - The stock is currently trading at a forward P/E ratio of 10.64X, which is below the industry average of 20.26X, indicating a potential undervaluation [19] Strategic Focus - The company is enhancing its position in the leisure travel market through fleet modernization and improved guest experiences, with a focus on maximizing yield and onboard engagement [21][26] - Ongoing initiatives, such as the "Charting the Course" program, aim to improve cost control and operational efficiency, supporting long-term margin performance [24][26]