Howmet Q2 Earnings Preview: Should You Buy the Stock Now or Wait?

Core Viewpoint - Howmet Aerospace Inc. is expected to report strong second-quarter results, with earnings projected at $0.87 per share and revenues at $1.99 billion, reflecting year-over-year increases of 29.9% and 5.8% respectively [2][7]. Financial Performance - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for second-quarter earnings has increased by a penny over the past 60 days, indicating positive momentum [2]. - The earnings surprise history shows that Howmet has outperformed the Zacks Consensus Estimate in the last four quarters, with an average surprise of 8.8% [3]. Market Dynamics - The commercial aerospace market is experiencing solid momentum, driven by increased air travel and demand for wide-body aircraft, which supports OEM spending [5]. - The revenue estimate from the commercial aerospace market for the second quarter is $1.05 billion, representing a 6.9% increase from the previous year [6]. - The defense business remains strong, with robust orders for engine spares for the F-35 program, leading to a projected revenue of $343 million, an 18.3% increase year-over-year [8]. Challenges - The Forged Wheels segment is facing lower demand due to reduced OEM builds, with a revenue estimate of $305 million, indicating an 11.8% decrease year-over-year [9]. - Supply-chain disruptions in the aerospace sector have resulted in delays and increased costs, which may impact operations and performance [10]. Stock Performance - Howmet's stock has surged 37.4% over the past three months, outperforming the Zacks Aerospace-Defense industry growth of 20.2% and the S&P 500's increase of 15% [11]. - The company's forward 12-month P/E ratio stands at 48.79X, significantly higher than the industry average of 28.11X, which may pose risks if market sentiment declines [14]. Investment Outlook - Howmet's diversified portfolio and strength in aerospace markets position it well for long-term growth, supported by enhanced U.S. government budgetary provisions [17]. - However, near-term challenges such as weakness in the commercial transportation market and supply-chain issues warrant caution for investors [18].