IMF大幅上调今年中国经济增长预期

Core Viewpoint - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has revised its global economic growth forecasts for the next two years, expecting growth rates of 3% and 3.1% respectively, which is an upward adjustment of 0.2 and 0.1 percentage points compared to the previous forecast in April [1] Economic Growth Projections - The upward revision in global economic growth expectations is attributed to better-than-expected international trade, lower average effective tariff levels in the U.S., improved global financial conditions, and fiscal expansion in major economies [1] - The most significant upward adjustment in growth forecasts was for China, with the IMF raising its expected growth rate for this year by 0.8 percentage points compared to the April forecast [1] Factors Influencing China's Growth - The adjustment for China's economic growth is primarily due to stronger-than-expected economic activity in the first half of the year and significant reductions in U.S.-China tariffs [1] - The IMF also raised its growth forecast for China in 2026 by 0.2 percentage points, indicating a positive long-term outlook [1] - The strong export performance of China, particularly to regions outside the U.S., has offset the decline in exports to the U.S., contributing to the economic growth [1] - Fiscal policies supporting consumption have also played a role in driving China's economic growth [1] Recommendations for Policy - The IMF suggests that countries should promote clear and transparent trade frameworks to reduce policy-induced uncertainties [1] - Central banks are advised to carefully calibrate monetary policies based on specific national conditions to maintain price and financial stability amid ongoing trade tensions and changing tariffs [1]