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基建投资增速放缓系短期扰动四季度有望显著加速
Zheng Quan Shi Bao·2025-07-29 18:47

Group 1 - Infrastructure investment in the first half of the year grew by 4.6% year-on-year, with a decline of 1 percentage point compared to the first five months [1] - The slowdown in June's infrastructure investment growth was the main reason for the overall decline in the first half of the year, with multiple high-frequency indicators showing weakness [1] - Extreme weather and price factors have temporarily impacted infrastructure investment growth, while fiscal support for infrastructure investment has been relatively weak compared to previous years [1][2] Group 2 - The average working hours of major construction machinery products in June decreased by 9.11% year-on-year, indicating a reduction in construction intensity [1] - The operating rates of upstream industries related to infrastructure, such as asphalt and cement, showed weak performance in June [1] - Experts attribute the slowdown in infrastructure investment growth primarily to short-term disturbances caused by extreme weather and price factors, rather than a trend change [2] Group 3 - In the first half of the year, local governments issued 2.16 trillion yuan in new special bonds, a year-on-year increase of 45%, but this did not stabilize June's infrastructure investment growth [3] - The proportion of special bonds supporting traditional infrastructure has decreased, with a 4.3% year-on-year decline in the total scale of special bonds directed towards traditional infrastructure [3] - The rapid growth of special bond funds in areas such as land reserves and affordable housing indicates a diversification in funding allocation [3] Group 4 - Despite a decrease in direct fiscal investment in traditional infrastructure, fiscal policy continues to support economic growth through demand-side stimulus measures [4] - The shift in fiscal policy reflects a transition from relying solely on investment to a more coordinated approach involving both investment and consumption [4] Group 5 - The National Development and Reform Commission has initiated the third batch of "two heavy" project lists, marking the full rollout of 800 billion yuan in funding for 1,459 projects [5] - Infrastructure investment is expected to improve significantly by the end of the third quarter, driven by both funding and project support [5] - There remains over 2 trillion yuan in special bond quotas available for issuance, with the Ministry of Finance committed to implementing a more proactive fiscal policy [5]