供应过剩格局延续 镍价震荡寻底趋势未变

Core Viewpoint - Nickel prices experienced significant fluctuations in the first half of the year, driven by supply constraints and macroeconomic factors, but ultimately fell due to oversupply conditions [1][2][9] Nickel Price Trends - In Q1, nickel prices rose to a high of 136,000 yuan/ton due to tight supply and favorable macro conditions, but in Q2, prices declined as oversupply became a concern [1] - Specific events influencing prices included Indonesia's RKAB quota reduction in January, trade tensions affecting demand in April, and subsequent policy changes in Indonesia and the Philippines [1][2] Policy Impact - Indonesian and Philippine nickel mining policies significantly affect nickel prices, with both countries accounting for nearly 70% of global nickel production by 2024 [2][3] - Policies can be categorized into "quantity" (e.g., RKAB quotas, export bans) and "price" (e.g., HMA price adjustments, increased resource usage fees), with quantity controls having a more immediate market impact [3] Supply Dynamics - Nickel production capacity is expected to continue growing, particularly in Indonesia, despite a slowdown in new project launches due to declining nickel prices [4][5] - The MHP production capacity is expanding, while the high-nickel battery market is facing challenges, leading to a subdued performance in the nickel sulfate market [4][5] Demand Outlook - Stainless steel, which accounts for over 60% of nickel demand, is facing pressure due to high nickel iron costs and weak downstream consumption [7] - The electric vehicle sector, a key growth area for nickel demand, is experiencing increased competition, leading to a decline in the market share of ternary batteries [8] Market Forecast - The overall nickel market is expected to remain oversupplied, with prices likely to fluctuate between 110,000 and 128,000 yuan/ton in the second half of the year [9]