美政府施加空前压力，关税影响混乱不清，美联储议息会议牵动“鲍威尔命运”

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's July meeting is under intense scrutiny, with expectations to maintain interest rates unchanged amid significant political pressure from President Trump and other officials to lower rates [1][3][5]. Group 1: Federal Reserve's Decision-Making - The Federal Reserve is expected to keep the federal funds rate target range between 4.25% and 4.50% during the July meeting [5]. - Despite political pressures, there are no indications that the Federal Reserve will yield to these demands, as it emphasizes its independence and decision-making based on economic data [5]. - The Federal Reserve faces a challenging environment due to the potential economic impacts of Trump's tariff policies, which complicate its decision-making process regarding inflation and economic growth [6]. Group 2: Political Pressure and Implications - President Trump and various government officials have exerted unprecedented pressure on the Federal Reserve to significantly lower interest rates, with some officials labeling the current rate levels as unreasonable [3][4]. - Trump's recent visit to the Federal Reserve, which was unannounced, is viewed as a political maneuver aimed at undermining Powell's public image and pushing for rate cuts [3]. - The high level of government debt, with interest payments nearing $1 trillion for the fiscal year, is a critical factor driving the push for lower rates, as it may affect budget allocations for other important projects [4]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The Federal Reserve's decision-making committee, which includes several members whose terms extend beyond Trump's presidency, may not necessarily follow the directives of a new chair if Powell were to be replaced [4]. - Analysts suggest that if inflation remains relatively low, the Federal Reserve might consider lowering rates in September, despite the current political climate [6].