Feng Huang Wang·2025-07-30 01:12Market Overview - The US stock market experienced a slight pullback on Tuesday, halting a recent upward trend, with the S&P 500 index declining for the first time in seven trading days after six consecutive record highs [1] - The Dow Jones fell by 204.57 points (0.46%) to 44,632.99, the Nasdaq dropped by 80.29 points (0.38%) to 21,098.29, and the S&P 500 decreased by 18.89 points (0.30%) to 6,370.88 [1] Upcoming Economic Events - Analysts indicate that the upcoming week could be crucial for the market, with significant economic events and corporate earnings reports scheduled [2] - Key events include the release of Q2 GDP data on Wednesday, the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision, and the July non-farm payroll report on Friday [2][7] - Major companies such as Microsoft, Meta, Apple, and Amazon are set to report earnings, collectively valued at over $11 trillion, which could significantly impact market sentiment [2] Market Sentiment and Valuation - Despite the recent market pullback, overall investor sentiment remains optimistic, aided by positive economic growth and inflation data [5] - The S&P 500 has risen 8.3% year-to-date, with forward P/E ratios increasing to 22 times, raising concerns among some analysts about market valuations [4][3] Federal Reserve and Interest Rates - The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain interest rates in the range of 4.25% to 4.5% during its upcoming meeting, despite ongoing discussions about the impact of tariffs on inflation [5][6] - There is speculation about potential divisions within the Federal Open Market Committee regarding interest rate adjustments, with some members advocating for immediate cuts [6] Employment Data Expectations - The upcoming non-farm payroll report is anticipated to show a slowdown in job growth, with an expected addition of 115,000 jobs in July, down from 147,000 in the previous month [7] - Any deviation from expectations in the employment data could lead to significant market volatility [7] Trade Policy Uncertainty - The uncertainty surrounding the tariffs set to be imposed by the Trump administration on August 1 adds another layer of risk to the market [8] - Investors are betting that the administration will avoid imposing tariffs that could lead to excessive market turmoil, but concerns remain about the unpredictability of trade policies [8]