新能源行业发展回顾与展望：新能源筚路蓝缕 目前的形势与我们的任务 | 投研报告

Core Viewpoint - The report emphasizes the strategic importance of the dual carbon transition in China, highlighting the ongoing policy adjustments and the critical role of electricity pricing in the development of renewable energy [1][4]. Investment Highlights - The renewable energy development targets set at the beginning of the 14th Five-Year Plan have been fully achieved in terms of quantity. The support for renewable energy has reached new heights since the introduction of the dual carbon strategy, with fixed electricity prices for renewable energy during the 13th Five-Year Plan [2]. - There are significant discrepancies in the completion rates of renewable energy installations across different levels, indicating that centralized large-scale projects have underperformed while distributed projects have exceeded expectations [2]. - The construction of distributed photovoltaic projects has been largely completed by non-listed platforms and some non-traditional power companies, while listed companies primarily focus on centralized projects [2]. Challenges in Renewable Energy Development - The profitability of new projects in the renewable energy sector is declining due to multiple challenges faced during the 14th Five-Year Plan, including coal shortages, electricity shortages, high component costs, slow construction of ultra-high voltage projects, and increased pressure on renewable energy consumption [3]. - The structural contradictions in the electricity system are driven by external environmental changes and technological transitions, necessitating coordinated efforts between policy tools and market mechanisms to adapt the electricity system [3]. Electricity Pricing Mechanism - The electricity pricing mechanism has seen continuous adjustments, with significant policy developments allowing for real price increases and outlining the framework for the electricity market [4]. - The framework for the electricity market is nearing completion, with a goal for renewable energy to fully participate in the market by 2029, although the green value of renewable energy is not yet fully reflected in the market [4]. Renewable Energy Consumption Issues - As the 14th Five-Year Plan concludes, new challenges in renewable energy consumption are emerging, with five key issues identified: electricity system adjustment capacity, economic viability of electrochemical energy storage, non-technical costs, demand-side response, and electricity pricing mechanisms [5]. - The balance between renewable energy profitability and installation growth is critical, with the commercial model for renewable operators shifting from calculating returns based on fixed conditions to determining prices based on acceptable minimum returns [5]. Policy Impact on Market Dynamics - The introduction of Document 136 has shifted the market dynamics, reducing pressure on existing projects while increasing pressure on new projects, potentially leading to a healthier development cycle for the industry [6]. - The document aims to regulate unreasonable practices in the industry and emphasizes the need for a balance between marketization and profitability for new renewable energy projects [6]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that the current challenges faced by renewable operators may be temporary, and the sustainable development of renewable energy is crucial for China's dual carbon strategy. Wind power operators are highlighted as having higher investment value [6]. - Specific companies are recommended for attention based on various factors, including valuation, asset quality, subsidy flexibility, growth potential, and merger expectations [6].