丙烯酸：密集投产或引发“技术溢价”

Core Viewpoint - The acrylic acid industry is entering a phase of intensified competition due to the recent commissioning of new production facilities, leading to a potential shift towards a technology premium era in the sector [1][4]. Group 1: Industry Developments - BASF's new integrated acrylic acid facility in Zhanjiang has completed mechanical construction and is entering the commissioning phase, which will enhance the company's capacity to meet the growing demand in China and Asia [2]. - The global acrylic acid production capacity is projected to reach nearly 9 million tons per year by the end of 2024, with China contributing 4.08 million tons per year [2]. - By mid-2025, China's acrylic acid capacity is expected to increase to 4.4 million tons per year, with significant contributions from provinces like Zhejiang, Jiangsu, and Shandong [2]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The acrylic acid market is facing supply pressure, with new capacities from companies like Shandong Lanwan and Tianjin Bohua expected to add a total of 740,000 tons of acrylic acid capacity in the second half of 2025 [2]. - There are signs of supply-demand imbalance, as the market data indicates potential oversupply in the acrylic acid sector [2][3]. - The demand for downstream products, particularly acrylic acid butyl ester, is showing mixed signals, with a decline in export volumes and a drop in market prices [3]. Group 3: Technological Evolution - The acrylic acid industry is undergoing a transformation from "scale competition" to "ecological competition," with the top five companies now holding 65% of the market share, an increase of 12 percentage points since 2020 [4][5]. - Leading companies are leveraging technological advancements and industry chain integration to create ecological barriers, while smaller firms struggle to meet stringent environmental and performance standards [4]. - The industry is expected to enter a "technology premium era" over the next five years, emphasizing the need for breakthroughs in specialized acrylic acid production [5].