日元将再跌破150关口？日本政治风险加剧，交易员押注日元贬值

Core Viewpoint - The Japanese yen has underperformed against all major competitors over the past three months, with increasing political risks potentially leading to further depreciation [1] Group 1: Currency Performance and Market Sentiment - Strategists hold a bearish outlook on the yen, anticipating that election results will prompt increased government spending and that U.S. tariff policies may delay interest rate hikes by the Bank of Japan [1] - As of July 22, the yen has depreciated approximately 6% against the dollar since reaching a seven-month high in April, now trading at 148.27 yen per dollar [4] - The ratio of bullish to bearish options for the dollar-yen pair is about 4:1, indicating a strong sentiment for further appreciation of the dollar against the yen [4] Group 2: Political Factors and Economic Implications - The ruling coalition of the Liberal Democratic Party and Komeito faced significant losses in the July 20 Senate elections, raising concerns about potential populist spending measures from Prime Minister Kishida [1] - Analysts suggest that if Kishida were to resign, he might be succeeded by a leader favoring fiscal and monetary stimulus, which could lead to more expansive fiscal policies [4] - Barclays strategists predict that if expansionary fiscal policies are implemented, the dollar-yen exchange rate could exceed 150 due to sensitivity to long-term premium changes [4] Group 3: Future Outlook and Central Bank Actions - The Bank of Japan's upcoming policy decision is expected to influence the yen's near-term performance, with a 74% probability of a rate hike by year-end [7] - Despite potential capital outflows from the proposed U.S. investment fund, some analysts believe the yen could strengthen to levels between 142 and 143 against the dollar if the Federal Reserve lowers interest rates [7] - Market participants are closely monitoring comments from Bank of Japan Governor Ueda regarding the timing of future interest rate hikes, as current conditions do not favor the yen [7]