美联储今夜决议料鹰派维稳，鲍威尔讲话将成9月降息风向标

Core Viewpoint - Investors are closely watching Jerome Powell's upcoming speech, but expectations for hints of an imminent rate cut from the Federal Reserve may be disappointed. The consensus is that the Fed will keep rates unchanged for the fifth consecutive time during the upcoming meeting on July 29-30 [1] Group 1: Federal Reserve's Rate Decision - The Federal Reserve's rate decision will be announced on Wednesday at 2 PM ET, followed by a press conference with Powell [2] - After this week's meeting, the Fed has three policy meetings left this year, with officials indicating a median expectation of two 25 basis point rate cuts in 2025 [3] - The pricing of federal funds futures shows that investors have assigned a probability of over 60% for a rate cut in September [3] Group 2: Economic Data and Market Expectations - Powell may choose to maintain operational flexibility until the economic trajectory and policy path become clearer, especially with significant economic data set to be released before the September meeting [4] - The upcoming meetings will see policymakers reviewing two employment reports and additional inflation, spending, and housing data [3] Group 3: Opposition Votes and Internal Dynamics - If the Fed continues to describe the labor market as "robust," it may provoke dissent from officials concerned about the weakening job market [5] - If two Fed governors vote against the policy decision, it would mark the first time since 1993 that two governors have opposed a decision [5] Group 4: Tariff Impact on Inflation - Powell is likely to be questioned about his interpretation of recent inflation data, particularly regarding tariffs and their impact on prices [6] - Some officials express concern that tariffs may have a more lasting impact on inflation, despite some price increases already being observed [7][8] Group 5: Political Pressures - The press conference may address various topics, including the Fed's renovation project and whether political pressures influence policy-making [9] - Powell may also need to respond to Treasury Secretary Scott Bessenet's suggestion regarding a review of the Fed's non-monetary policy functions [9]