欧洲央行政策陷拉锯 降息与加息预期博弈引关注

Core Viewpoint - The Euro is experiencing an upward trend against the US Dollar, currently trading around 1.1559, with a slight increase of 0.12% from the previous close of 1.1545. However, there are warnings about potential interest rate cuts if trade tensions escalate [1]. Economic Indicators - The current interest rate of 2% is positioned within the European Central Bank's neutral range of 1.5%-2.5%. Economists are concerned that if trade tensions worsen, further rate cuts may be necessary to maintain confidence [1]. - Sylvain Broyer, Chief Economist at S&P Global Ratings EMEA, suggests that actual interest rates have effectively reached zero, and Germany's upcoming economic stimulus plan could have a significant impact across the Eurozone [1]. Labor Market and Inflation - The labor market remains tight, with unemployment rates below equilibrium levels, indicating potential inflationary pressures as suggested by the traditional Phillips curve [1]. Market Expectations - There is a possibility that the market's expectation of rate cuts may reverse, with the next action from the European Central Bank potentially being an interest rate hike instead [1]. - The pricing gap between the bond market and the currency market has reached its largest level in 2023, indicating significant trading opportunities [1]. Technical Analysis - The Euro's recent decline has confirmed a lower high around 1.1770, suggesting the potential for further declines, with negative pressure targeting a close below the previous low of 1.1550 and the 50-day simple moving average [1]. - A bearish head and shoulders pattern has been completed on the 4-hour chart, indicating a potential continuation of the downward trend [1].