智通财经网·2025-07-30 05:51Core Viewpoint - UBS forecasts that Bank of China Hong Kong (02388) will maintain high levels of impairment provisions, with credit costs at 36 basis points for the first half of the year, consistent with the second half of last year, despite strong performance expectations for the first half [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - UBS maintains a forecast of a 1% year-on-year decline in net profit for the full year, despite an expected 3.4% year-on-year increase in net profit for the first half, driven by a strong growth of 55.8% in non-interest income [1] - The decline in net interest income is projected at 9.1% due to falling HIBOR rates, which will be offset by the growth in non-interest income [1] Group 2: Revenue Drivers - Key drivers of non-interest income include significant increases in capital market-related fees, such as securities brokerage, fund distribution, and insurance agency fees, which are expected to rise significantly with the rebound of Hong Kong stocks and declining market interest rates [1] - Trading-related investment income is also anticipated to perform well, with expected revenue growth of 8.1% in this segment [1] Group 3: Earnings Forecast - UBS has raised its earnings per share forecasts for 2025 to 2027 by 3% to 9%, reflecting strong growth in non-interest income [1] - The target price for Bank of China Hong Kong has been increased from HKD 34.5 to HKD 36.5, while maintaining a "Neutral" rating [1]