油厂库存环比整体去库 菜籽粕以大区间行情对待

Core Viewpoint - The main focus of the article is the recent surge in rapeseed meal futures, with the primary contract reaching a peak of 2731.00 yuan, reflecting a 3.41% increase, and the outlook for future prices remains uncertain due to various influencing factors [1]. Group 1: Market Analysis - Ningzheng Futures predicts that rapeseed meal prices will continue to experience a period of fluctuation in the short term, influenced by the ongoing substitution effect of soybean meal and the weakening prices of U.S. soybeans [1]. - Zhonghui Futures notes that the market is currently facing a mixed bag of bullish and bearish factors, leading to a wide range of price movements for rapeseed meal [1]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Factors - Global rapeseed production is recovering year-on-year, but some regions are experiencing dry soil conditions, which could affect future yields; attention should be paid to upcoming rainfall [1]. - Domestic oil mills are seeing a reduction in rapeseed meal inventory on a month-on-month basis, although year-on-year levels remain high; a significant drop in rapeseed imports from July to September is also noted [1]. - The imposition of a 100% import tariff on rapeseed meal and the strong performance of old crop rapeseed are providing substantial support for rapeseed meal prices, while improving import profits are creating upward pressure [1]. Group 3: Market Sentiment - The low price differential between soybean meal and rapeseed meal is leading to a decrease in the addition of rapeseed meal in feed, negatively impacting consumption expectations [1]. - The recent rebound in rapeseed meal prices is attributed to short-sellers taking profits after a period of adjustment, indicating a potential shift in market sentiment [1].