百亿私募淡水泉：避险思维让位于机会思维，下半年看好三类结构性机会

Core Viewpoint - The A-share and Hong Kong stock markets experienced a structural rally in the first half of 2025, driven by rising risk appetite and active capital seeking opportunities, leading to a comprehensive recovery in the performance of subjective long strategies in private equity funds [1][2]. Market Performance - As of June 30, 2025, stock strategy private equity funds achieved an average return of 10%, significantly outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index and the CSI 300 Index [1][3]. - The average daily trading volume of A-shares stabilized at 1.3 trillion yuan, marking a substantial increase compared to the same period last year [1]. - Major indices, including the Shanghai Composite Index, regained significant levels, with the Shanghai Composite Index surpassing 3,400 points, reaching a new high for the year [2]. Fund Performance - Approximately 80% of private equity securities products recorded positive returns in the first half of 2025, with an average return of 10% for 6,495 stock strategy products [3]. - Notable private equity firms like Dazhuo Investment and High Yi Asset saw significant recovery in their flagship products, with Dazhuo's flagship product achieving a nearly 18% increase over the past year, outperforming the CSI 300 Index by 11 percentage points [3][4]. Investment Strategies - Dazhuo Investment maintained a unique investment framework, focusing on new consumption opportunities, particularly in the context of rising female consumer power and the potential for overseas expansion [5][6]. - The technology sector saw a significant boost in confidence due to AI developments, with Dazhuo benefiting from early positioning in this area [5]. - The firm also strategically invested in cyclical assets, including electric equipment and automobiles, capitalizing on the "anti-involution" trend [5][6]. Future Outlook - Dazhuo Investment anticipates three main structural opportunities for the second half of 2025: the revaluation of quality Chinese assets, the global development of advantageous Chinese industries, and investment opportunities arising from breakthroughs in AI technology [6][7]. - In the new consumption sector, the focus will remain on emerging consumption trends and overseas expansion [7]. - The technology sector will continue to emphasize the AI supply chain and domestic substitution opportunities, while the automotive sector will focus on high-end and intelligent vehicles, particularly mid-to-high-end domestic brands [7].