Market Review - On Tuesday evening, white sugar futures for the 2509 contract rose by 0.17% to close at 5868 yuan/ton [1] Fundamental Summary - The Indian Food Ministry announced a sugar sales quota of 2.25 million tons for domestic consumption starting from August 1, 2025, which is an increase of 50,000 tons year-on-year and month-on-month [2] - In the fourth week of July 2025, Brazil exported a total of 3.1757 million tons of white sugar, compared to 3.7823 million tons in July of the previous year. The average daily shipment was 167,100 tons, reflecting a 1.64% increase from 164,400 tons per day in July of last year [2] - S&P Commodity Insights analyst Bianca Guimaraes stated that the dry weather in July is expected to accelerate harvesting, boosting sugar production in the first half of the month, a trend anticipated to continue into the latter half [2] Institutional Perspectives - Southwest Futures noted that while Brazil's production is below expectations, both Thailand and India are expected to have a bumper crop. Domestic inventory is low, and import volumes remain high, suggesting a neutral valuation after short-term basis adjustments, recommending a wait-and-see approach. The strategy indicates a range-bound operation [3] - Green Dahan Futures highlighted that the recent rebound in Zheng sugar prices was primarily driven by basis recovery logic, supported by a high domestic sugar sales rate. However, the main constraint on sugar prices remains the pressure from large volumes of imported sugar arriving at ports. Recent attention should be paid to macroeconomic sentiment and the growth progress of Brazilian sugarcane, as well as changes in processing sugar prices in the spot market. The trading strategy suggests monitoring activity ranges of 5830-5900 for SR509 and 5680-5770 for SR601, with previous long positions held for observation or partial exit [3]
进口量仍然较多 白糖期货区间震荡运行
Jin Tou Wang·2025-07-30 06:23