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下游消费端一般 棉花期货价格跌破14000元支撑
Jin Tou Wang·2025-07-30 07:05

Core Viewpoint - The cotton futures market is experiencing a downward trend, with prices showing weakness and uncertainty due to various factors including trade negotiations and demand fluctuations [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - Cotton futures opened at 13,900.00 CNY/ton, with a trading range between 13,750.00 CNY and 13,920.00 CNY, reflecting a decline of approximately 1.75% [1]. - The market sentiment is weak, with a notable decrease in demand from textile enterprises, leading to a significant drop in orders to near a five-year low [1]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - In the U.S., while the condition of cotton crops has slightly deteriorated, the overall growth remains good, with a small decline in quality ratings but still ahead of the previous year [1]. - Domestic new cotton planting area and yield are both increasing, which is expected to raise the baseline production levels [1]. - The pace of commercial inventory reduction is accelerating, but the replenishment of downstream products has significantly slowed in the latest week [1]. Group 3: Trade Negotiations Impact - Recent U.S.-China trade talks resulted in an extension of the existing tariff measures for 90 days, indicating a lack of definitive agreement and creating uncertainty in the market [2]. - The cotton market is particularly sensitive to these negotiations, as the upcoming three months are typically a peak demand season for cotton [2]. - The price of Zheng cotton has fallen below the 14,000 CNY support level, reflecting weakened confidence among long positions due to the uncertain trade environment [2].