Group 1 - The national implementation of the childcare subsidy program is a groundbreaking policy aimed at directly providing cash subsidies to families with children under three years old, starting from January 1, 2025, with an annual subsidy of 3,600 yuan per child [1][2] - The subsidy program is expected to benefit over 20 million families annually, potentially stimulating birth rates, especially in lower-tier cities, where the impact of the subsidy may be more pronounced [2][3] - The recent changes in the dairy industry, including the development of deep processing products and exploration of export potential, are expected to create new demand dynamics for the infant formula sector [3][4] Group 2 - The demand for infant formula is anticipated to improve due to the stimulus from the new policy and the expected population growth driven by the 2024 zodiac preferences, leading to a potential recovery in demand by 2025 [3][4] - The overall dairy industry is likely to benefit from the positive trends in population issues and the recovery of the raw milk cycle, which will enhance profitability across the entire industry chain [4] - Recommended companies include China Feihe, H&H International Holdings, Yili, and Mengniu Dairy, which are expected to benefit from the improving market conditions and the recovery of raw milk prices [4]
开源证券:国家育儿补贴方案落地 关注乳业板块投资机会