联储鸽声渐近市场屏息待变 贵金属料展开震荡博弈

Core Viewpoint - The market is currently focused on the upcoming Federal Reserve interest rate decision, key economic data, and the outcome of U.S.-China trade negotiations, which are influencing the movements of the U.S. dollar and precious metals prices [1][2]. Market Overview - The U.S. dollar index has continued its upward trend, reaching a five-week high by surpassing the 99 mark, closing up 0.26% at 98.89 [1][2]. - Spot gold halted a four-day decline, briefly touching the $3330 mark but ultimately closing up 0.35% at $3327.37 per ounce [1][2]. - Spot silver experienced sideways movement, closing up 0.08% at $38.175 per ounce [1][2]. Key News Summary - Federal Reserve officials anticipate the need for future interest rate cuts but are not prepared to act in the upcoming meeting, with a dovish stance expected [3]. - The ongoing debate regarding political interference and the independence of the Federal Reserve is creating significant uncertainty in decision-making [3]. - U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessenet indicated that negotiations regarding tariff suspensions between the U.S. and China will continue, with any extension ultimately decided by Trump [3]. - China's Finance Minister announced plans to increase fiscal support to boost domestic consumption amid growing economic headwinds [3]. Trading Insights - The precious metals market is expected to experience increased volatility in the short term, with gold likely to find support around $3250 and silver around the $38 mark [4]. - Key variables influencing price movements include the outcome of the July 30 FOMC meeting and geopolitical developments related to Russia [4]. - A dovish stance from the Federal Reserve that does not meet market expectations, along with a calming of the Russia-Ukraine situation, could exert downward pressure on gold and silver prices [4]. Price Levels - For international gold, support is noted around $3319 or $3325, with resistance at $3368 or $3374 [5]. - For spot silver, support is identified at $37.90 or $38.00, with resistance at $38.45 or $38.60 [5].