今晚还不降息？美联储恐面临逾30年来最嘹亮“反对声”

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain the interest rate target range at 4.25%-4.5% during the upcoming meeting, with a very low probability of a rate cut at only 3% [1] Group 1: Federal Reserve's Decision and Internal Dynamics - The Federal Reserve is likely to face significant internal dissent, with the possibility of multiple board members voting against the decision for the first time in over 30 years [3] - Recent criticism from the White House, particularly from President Trump, has intensified pressure on the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates to alleviate government debt costs [2] - Analysts predict that board members Waller and Bowman may vote against the decision, expressing concerns that current rates are too high given rising employment risks [10] Group 2: Market Expectations and Economic Indicators - Wall Street institutions anticipate minimal changes in the Federal Reserve's statement, particularly regarding the assessment of economic uncertainty [7] - The upcoming GDP data release is expected to influence the Federal Reserve's statement, with expectations of a downgrade in economic growth assessment from "solid" to "moderate" [8] - Investors currently assign a probability of over 60% for a rate cut in September, although the Federal Reserve may not want to raise this expectation before reviewing economic data [13] Group 3: Powell's Press Conference Insights - Powell's press conference is expected to address the potential for a September rate cut, with indications that the decision will depend on forthcoming economic data [15] - The impact of tariffs on inflation and economic conditions is likely to be a key topic, as the Federal Reserve has previously expressed caution regarding the effects of tariffs on pricing [17] - Political pressures from the Trump administration are anticipated to be a significant theme during Powell's press conference, with questions about whether these pressures affect policy-making [19]