智通财经网·2025-07-30 08:19Core Viewpoint - UBS reports that since 2020, the rise in high dividend yields and improved transparency in fundamentals have driven the performance of Chinese banks, with a focus on the sustainability of dividends depending on profit outlook and liquidity [1][2] Group 1: Dividend Sustainability - The key issue for Chinese banks is the sustainability of dividends, which relies on profit prospects and liquidity [1] - UBS maintains an optimistic view on the sustainability of dividends and further increases in Chinese bank stocks [1] Group 2: Profit Growth and Forecasts - UBS's base case scenario predicts that Chinese banks will maintain stable profit growth and resume revenue growth from 2026, while keeping provisions steady [1] - The bank expects income transparency to improve from 2025, with net interest margin (NIM) bottoming out in 2026 [2] Group 3: Stock Ratings and Target Prices - UBS raised target prices for several banks, including increasing the target price for Bank of Communications from HKD 5.95 to HKD 8.6 and upgrading its rating from "Neutral" to "Buy" [1] - The target price for Industrial and Commercial Bank of China was raised from HKD 5.98 to HKD 7.79, and for China Construction Bank from HKD 7.4 to HKD 10.2 [1] Group 4: Market Performance - As of July 28, 2023, the MSCI China Bank Index has risen by 79% since the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, outperforming both Hong Kong and A-share markets [2] - The proportion of H-shares held by southbound funds is expected to double from 19% in 2023 to 41% by 2025, driven by increased inflows, particularly from Chinese insurance companies [2] Group 5: Revenue Sources - Non-interest income, especially from investment and trading activities, is becoming a more significant revenue source, potentially contributing up to 5% of revenue growth by 2029 [2] - Although asset yield remains under pressure, positive deposit rate cuts, robust loan growth, and bond growth are expected to support net interest income [2]