中银国际：医保局明确集采反内卷 关注医药板块重估机会

Core Viewpoint - The State Council's press conference highlighted the deepening of medical insurance reform during the 14th Five-Year Plan, emphasizing the principle of "anti-involution" in the 11th batch of centralized procurement, which aims to stabilize drug prices and improve profitability in the pharmaceutical industry [1][2]. Group 1: Centralized Procurement and Policy Changes - The National Medical Insurance Administration (NMI) has initiated the 11th batch of centralized procurement, focusing on principles such as "stabilizing clinical use, ensuring quality, preventing collusion, and anti-involution" [1]. - The NMI has optimized procurement rules, moving away from a simple lowest price reference, which previously led to low pricing and affected profitability and quality [2][3]. - The new rules require the lowest bidding companies to justify their pricing and ensure it does not fall below cost, indicating a potential improvement in drug pricing dynamics [1][2]. Group 2: Pharmaceutical Industry Outlook - The pharmaceutical sector is expected to gradually recover from the impacts of centralized procurement, with policy shifts and improved profitability on the horizon [3]. - The industry has seen significant R&D investments, and many companies are entering a phase of product realization, enhancing their competitive edge globally [3]. Group 3: Investment Opportunities - Three main investment lines are suggested: 1. Areas with stable growth, particularly in medical devices and pharmaceuticals, with specific companies highlighted for potential investment [4]. 2. The CXO and medical equipment sectors are anticipated to benefit from favorable domestic financing and fiscal policies, with recommended companies listed [5]. 3. Innovative fields related to national medical insurance negotiations, focusing on companies with international expansion capabilities [5]. - Additional sectors of interest include traditional Chinese medicine, raw materials, medical services, vaccines, and retail pharmacies, with specific companies identified for potential investment [6][7].