【行业研究】2025年上半年电力行业信用风险总结及展望

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese power industry is experiencing growth in asset scale and profitability, driven by falling coal prices and stable electricity prices, with a significant shift towards clean energy generation [1][5]. Group 1: Industry Overview - In 2024, the total electricity consumption in China reached 9.85 trillion kWh, a year-on-year increase of 6.8%, supported by various economic policies [2]. - The power supply and demand were generally balanced in 2024, although there were periods of high demand due to extreme weather conditions [2][5]. - The clean energy investment and installed capacity have rapidly increased, surpassing that of thermal power for the first time, although thermal power still plays a significant role in ensuring supply stability [5]. Group 2: Bond Market Review - In the first half of 2025, the bond issuance scale in the power industry grew by 38.22% year-on-year, totaling 4034.19 billion yuan, with 309 bonds issued [8]. - The majority of bond issuers were central and local state-owned enterprises, with 81 companies participating, including 38 thermal power and 43 clean energy companies [8][15]. - The average credit rating of bond issuers remained high, with 59 companies rated AAA, 19 rated AA+, and 3 rated AA, indicating strong market recognition and financing demand [16]. Group 3: Debt and Credit Situation - The total amount of maturing bonds in the power industry for the first half of 2025 was 3899.83 billion yuan, which is at a medium level historically, with no defaults reported [19]. - The credit status of the power industry remains stable, with two companies experiencing credit upgrades in 2025 [19][20]. - As of June 30, 2025, the existing bonds were primarily issued by central and local state-owned enterprises, maintaining a high credit level [23].