【环球财经】经济数据、科技巨头财报、美联储议息会议……美国市场将迎密集考验

Economic Data - The impact of U.S. tariff policies is becoming evident, with June's Consumer Price Index (CPI) showing structural changes despite appearing weak. The core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index is expected to significantly outperform the core CPI [2] - Analysts predict that the June core PCE month-over-month growth could reach between 0.29% and 0.34%, which may influence the Federal Reserve's decision on interest rate cuts [2][3] - The June core CPI increased by only 0.2% month-over-month, below expectations, but core commodity prices have shown a notable increase for the first time since February, particularly in household goods and clothing affected by tariffs [2] Employment Data - The U.S. non-farm payroll data for July is set to be released, with analysts forecasting an addition of 110,000 jobs, a decrease from the previous 147,000. The unemployment rate is expected to rise from 4.1% to 4.2% [3] - The June non-farm payroll report indicated that job growth was primarily driven by government employment, while private sector job growth showed signs of cooling [4] Technology Sector Earnings - Major technology companies are set to report earnings, with Microsoft and Meta releasing results on July 30, and Apple and Amazon on July 31. These earnings reports are crucial for the stock market's performance [5] - The S&P 500 index has risen by 8.3% this year, with a forward P/E ratio of 22, making the upcoming earnings reports from these tech giants critical for market valuations [6] - Apple is facing challenges due to lagging AI advancements and poor iPhone sales, with investors focusing on iPhone sales, service revenue, AI strategy, and tariff risks [6][8] - Amazon's earnings will be scrutinized for its cloud business (AWS), advertising revenue, e-commerce sales, Prime membership income, and capital expenditure plans amid tariff concerns [8] - Meta's stock has surged by 16.8% this year, with investors interested in its advertising revenue, capital expenditures, and AI initiatives [10] - Microsoft has seen its stock price rise significantly, with a market cap exceeding $3.8 trillion. Investors will focus on its cloud business growth and partnership with OpenAI [12] Federal Reserve Meeting - The Federal Reserve's interest rate decision is anticipated on July 31, with a high probability (97.9%) of maintaining current rates. The market expects a 64.7% chance of a 25 basis point cut in September and a 49.6% chance in October [15][17] - There is internal division within the Federal Reserve regarding future rate cuts, with some members advocating for immediate cuts due to labor market concerns, while others prefer to wait for more economic data [18]