ETF日报：强预期-弱现实的错配，可能短期带来债券市场的配置机遇，可关注十年国债ETF

Market Overview - The A-share market experienced a pullback after an initial rise, with the Shanghai Composite Index up 0.17% to 3615.72 points, while the Shenzhen Component fell by 0.77% and the ChiNext Index dropped by 1.62% [1] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 1.84 trillion yuan, an increase of 41.1 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day [1] - The market sentiment appears weak in the short term, with over 3500 stocks declining [1] Economic Policy Insights - The Central Political Bureau of the Communist Party of China held a meeting to analyze the current economic situation and plan for the second half of the year, emphasizing the need for sustained macroeconomic policies [1] - The meeting highlighted the importance of implementing more proactive fiscal policies and moderately easing monetary policies to enhance policy effectiveness [1] Bond Market Performance - The ten-year government bond ETF (511260) and government bond ETF (511010) showed some degree of increase, indicating a stabilization after several days of decline [2] - The bond market is currently under pressure due to stock market performance, but macroeconomic realities still favor the bond market [3] Industrial Insights - The chemical sector has been under pressure due to weak downstream demand and continuous price declines, with major chemical products experiencing negative year-on-year price changes [7] - The recent fire at Covestro's plant in Germany has disrupted TDI production, which may impact the chemical supply chain [9] Profitability Trends - Industrial profits for large-scale enterprises fell by 1.1% year-on-year in the first five months, marking the fourth consecutive year of negative growth [5] - There is a notable divergence in profitability across sectors, with equipment, non-ferrous metals, and essential consumer goods showing stronger profit growth compared to sectors like real estate and automotive [5]