下半年宏观政策向哪“适时发力”

Core Viewpoint - The Central Political Bureau meeting emphasizes maintaining policy continuity and stability while enhancing flexibility and foresight in macroeconomic policies to address current economic challenges and achieve annual development goals [2][5]. Economic Growth and Policy Context - China's economy grew by 5.3% in the first half of the year, supported by consumption policies and investment from special bonds, despite facing external and internal challenges [3][4]. - The second quarter's economic growth rate was 5.2%, only slightly down from the first quarter, contrasting with the previous year's declining trend [4]. Risks and Challenges - The meeting acknowledged ongoing risks, including potential consumption declines due to high base effects and falling real estate prices, which could impact consumer spending [5][6]. - The trade tensions with the U.S. remain a concern, with high tariffs potentially affecting export performance [5][6]. Policy Recommendations - The meeting calls for proactive fiscal policies and moderate monetary easing to fully leverage policy effects, including timely adjustments based on economic conditions [6][9]. - Specific measures include increasing government bond issuance, enhancing financial support for affected industries, and expanding consumption incentives [7][8]. Future Outlook - The economic growth is expected to follow a "U-shaped" trajectory, with stronger performance in the first half and potential slowdowns later in the year due to various pressures [5][6]. - The government plans to utilize special bonds and long-term bonds as key tools for investment and consumption stimulation in the upcoming months [8][9].