Amgen Gears Up to Report Q2 Earnings: Will the Beat Streak Continue?

Core Viewpoint - Amgen (AMGN) is expected to exceed earnings expectations for Q2 2025, with consensus estimates for sales at $8.86 billion and earnings per share at $5.25, following a previous quarter where it beat earnings expectations by 17.8% [2][9]. Sales Performance - Strong volume growth from products such as Evenity, Repatha, and Blincyto is anticipated to drive sales, although prices are expected to decline due to increased rebates [3][9]. - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for sales of Evenity, Repatha, and Blincyto is $478 million, $673 million, and $385 million, respectively [3]. Product Insights - Sales of RANKL antibodies, Prolia, and Xgeva are expected to benefit from volume growth, despite price declines. However, the expiration of patents for Prolia and Xgeva in the U.S. in February 2025 may lead to significant sales erosion in the latter half of 2025 [5]. - Newer drugs like Tezspire and Tavneos are projected to contribute positively to top-line growth, with consensus estimates of $320 million and $102 million, respectively [6]. Competitive Landscape - Kyprolis is facing competitive pressure, which likely affected its volume growth in Q1 and is expected to continue in Q2, with consensus estimates for sales at $370 million [7]. - Enbrel sales are likely to decline due to lower prices, while Otezla is expected to see gains from volume growth, with estimates of $534 million for Otezla and $805 million for Enbrel [8]. Recent Developments - Sales of rare disease drugs from the acquisition of Horizon are expected to improve in Q2, following lower-than-expected sales in Q1 due to inventory changes [10]. - New biosimilars launched, such as Wezlana and Pavblu, are anticipated to drive sales growth, although fluctuations in quarterly sales are expected [12][13]. Earnings Surprise History - Amgen has a strong earnings surprise history, with an average surprise of 8.34% over the last four quarters and a stock increase of 18.4% year-to-date compared to a 1.9% increase in the industry [14]. Earnings Prediction Model - The earnings prediction model indicates a likely earnings beat for Amgen, with an Earnings ESP of +1.19% and a Zacks Rank of 3 [15][17].