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国泰海通证券:政策依旧留有后手,密切关注外部风险可能的反复和国内基本面的变化
news flash·2025-07-30 14:51

Core Insights - The Central Committee of the Communist Party of China decided to hold the Fourth Plenary Session in October 2025 to discuss the "14th Five-Year Plan" and analyze the current economic situation [1] - The report indicates that while the easing of US-China tensions and better-than-expected economic data in the first half of the year have reduced the urgency for additional stimulus policies, there remains a need for flexibility and foresight in macroeconomic policy [1] - The potential for "timely" incremental policy adjustments exists if external risks increase or domestic economic pressures mount in the second half of the year [1] Economic Policy Outlook - The report emphasizes the importance of maintaining a backstop in policy, suggesting that the government is prepared to act if necessary [1] - Continuous monitoring of external risks and domestic fundamentals is crucial for future policy decisions [1] - The "14th Five-Year Plan" will provide definitive industry clues that should be closely observed [1]