今晚还不降息？鲍威尔或遭特朗普提名的两理事联合反对！美联储恐面临32年来最严重分裂

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve is facing its most divided moment in 32 years, with two board members potentially voting against Chairman Powell's stance on interest rates, advocating for an immediate rate cut [3][4][5]. Group 1: Federal Reserve's Current Situation - The upcoming Federal Reserve meeting on July 30 is expected to maintain the interest rate target range at 4.25% to 4.5%, with a 97.4% probability of no rate cut [1]. - The internal division within the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has formed three factions: one advocating for immediate rate cuts, a middle group seeking more data, and a cautious faction waiting for clear signs of economic weakness [4][6]. Group 2: Key Figures and Their Positions - Christopher Waller and Michelle Bowman, both nominated by Trump, represent the aggressive faction pushing for an immediate rate cut, citing concerns over a weakening labor market [5][6]. - Mary Daly, representing the middle faction, emphasizes the need for more data before making any decisions on rate cuts, while Raphael Bostic from the cautious faction is wary of inflation risks [6][7]. Group 3: Political Pressures and Implications - The independence of the Federal Reserve is under significant political pressure, particularly from Trump, who has made symbolic gestures to influence the Fed's decisions [9][11]. - The upcoming September meeting is viewed as a critical juncture for the Fed's institutional integrity and its ability to maintain policy independence amidst political influences [8][11].